Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey
Murat Turkes, M. Tufan Turp, Nazan An, Tugba Ozturk,
and M. Levent Kurnaz
Abstract
In this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme
weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of
2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 by using regional
climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by
forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical
Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km
resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in
reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of
the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation
for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional
model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the
projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future.
Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more
intensely over Turkey.
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Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey
Murat Turkes, M. Tufan Turp, Nazan An, Tugba Ozturk,
and M. Levent Kurnaz
Abstract
In this chapter, changes in seasonal precipitation climatology, extreme
weather conditions, and aridity conditions of Turkey are evaluated for the period of
2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 by using regional
climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by
forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical
Physics (ICTP) with MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology. The outputs of MPI-ESM-MR are used to generate 10 km
resolution data by the double nesting method under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
emission scenarios. The seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in
reproducing the observed climatology over Turkey is tested by using the output of
the global climate model. The projection results show a strong decrease in precipitation
for almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional
model. The intensity of drought conditions is projected to increase. According to the
projection results, more arid conditions are expected in the region for the near future.
Therefore, drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more
intensely over Turkey.
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