Rising Aridity, Drought and International Security,
Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Academy
Drought and aridity are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of international security challenges. As climate change continues to intensify, these phenomena lead to severe environmental stress, impacting water availability, agricultural productivity, and overall ecosystem health. The implications of such stress are profound, as they can destabilize nations and regions, particularly those already facing economic or political fragility.
The Global Threat of Drying Lands report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change effects on rising aridity and it’s consequences
“More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly. Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40 per cent of Earth’s arable lands. Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12 per cent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015. Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death—especially among children and women around the world.
Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world— particularly in the hyperarid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.”
In many parts of the world, rivers and aquifers cross national boundaries, making access to water a potential source of conflict. Moreover, drought and aridity severely affect agricultural systems, which are vital for food security. Crop failures and livestock losses can result in increased food prices, malnutrition, and social unrest. Historically, we have seen examples where food shortages have contributed to civil unrest and even revolutions, as populations become desperate and disillusioned.
The human impact of drought extends beyond immediate resource competition. It often drives mass migration, as people flee areas rendered uninhabitable by arid conditions. These migrations can lead to demographic shifts that strain resources in receiving areas, potentially creating further tensions and conflict. Countries facing high levels of migration due to drought are often less equipped to handle the influx, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.
Addressing the intertwined issues of drought, aridity, and international security requires cooperative governance and innovative resource management. Transboundary water management agreements, investment in sustainable agricultural practices, and climate adaptation strategies are essential to mitigate the impacts of drought.
In conclusion, as drought and aridity continue to pose significant challenges globally, their implications for international security cannot be overlooked. Recognizing these challenges and implementing effective strategies will be crucial for promoting stability and peace in affected regions. It is imperative that nations work together to confront these environmental pressures, safeguarding not only their own interests but also contributing to global security and sustainability.
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Rising Aridity, Drought and International Security,
Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Academy
Drought and aridity are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of international security challenges. As climate change continues to intensify, these phenomena lead to severe environmental stress, impacting water availability, agricultural productivity, and overall ecosystem health. The implications of such stress are profound, as they can destabilize nations and regions, particularly those already facing economic or political fragility.
The Global Threat of Drying Lands report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change effects on rising aridity and it’s consequences
“More than two thirds of all land on the planet (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) is projected to store less water by the end of the century, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise even modestly. Aridity is considered the world’s largest single driver behind the degradation of agricultural systems, affecting 40 per cent of Earth’s arable lands. Rising aridity has been blamed for a 12 per cent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) recorded for African countries between 1990–2015. Rising aridity’s impacts on poverty, water scarcity, land degradation and insufficient food production have been linked to increasing rates of sickness and death—especially among children and women around the world.
Rising aridity and drought play a key role in increasing human migration around the world— particularly in the hyperarid and arid areas of southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa and southern Asia.”
In many parts of the world, rivers and aquifers cross national boundaries, making access to water a potential source of conflict. Moreover, drought and aridity severely affect agricultural systems, which are vital for food security. Crop failures and livestock losses can result in increased food prices, malnutrition, and social unrest. Historically, we have seen examples where food shortages have contributed to civil unrest and even revolutions, as populations become desperate and disillusioned.
The human impact of drought extends beyond immediate resource competition. It often drives mass migration, as people flee areas rendered uninhabitable by arid conditions. These migrations can lead to demographic shifts that strain resources in receiving areas, potentially creating further tensions and conflict. Countries facing high levels of migration due to drought are often less equipped to handle the influx, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.
Addressing the intertwined issues of drought, aridity, and international security requires cooperative governance and innovative resource management. Transboundary water management agreements, investment in sustainable agricultural practices, and climate adaptation strategies are essential to mitigate the impacts of drought.
In conclusion, as drought and aridity continue to pose significant challenges globally, their implications for international security cannot be overlooked. Recognizing these challenges and implementing effective strategies will be crucial for promoting stability and peace in affected regions. It is imperative that nations work together to confront these environmental pressures, safeguarding not only their own interests but also contributing to global security and sustainability.
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