Overview
Introduction
The year 2024 marked another year of record-breaking water-related
extremes across the globe. Widespread droughts and floods not only cause
devastating local impacts but also signal broader shifts in the global water
cycle (GCEW 2024). A changing water cycle directly affects the availability
of freshwater. Although shifts in water extremes are increasingly visible,
the long-term trend for total freshwater availability on land remains
poorly understood. Conventional wisdom assumes that the amount of
freshwater available for human and ecosystem use is fixed and that
periodic deficits get eventually compensated with surplus precipitation.
However, this report’s findings challenge that assumption. They reveal a
crisis not only of water extremes but also of a shifting baseline in global
water availability.
Focus of this report
Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, this report presents the first
global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The
findings expose an alarming trend of continental drying: a persistent longterm
decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are
droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of
freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Combining satellite
data with microeconomic data, this report further explores four questions.
What has caused continental drying?
Previous research and this report’s analysis point to three major causes:
global warming, worsening droughts, and human activities that affect water
and land use. Among these, unsustainable water and land use are pivotal
drivers of freshwater loss in nonglaciated regions. Although the crisis of a changing climate is at its core a water crisis, ineffective water management has further exacerbated it.
What are the impacts of continental drying?
Continental drying raises profound risks: It can reduce agricultural productivity, harm human health, and, in extreme cases, render land uninhabitable and drive large-scale emigration. The report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion jeopardizes jobs and incomes, intensifies the frequency and severity of wildfires, and poses a serious threat to biodiversity. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point at which damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult.
Main Messages
This report addresses the escalating global water crisis characterized by
continental drying—the long-term decline in freshwater availability across
large landmasses—highlighting trends, causes, and impacts on jobs, the
economy, and the planet. It presents a comprehensive strategy and policy
action road map focused on demand management, supply augmentation,
and improved water allocation to address the water crisis.
Trend and causes of continental drying
Global freshwater reserves have significantly declined over the past two
decades, leading to the emergence of mega-drying regions. This loss of
freshwater is estimated at 324 billion cubic meters per year—enough to meet
the annual water needs of 280 million people. Regionally, the median basinlevel
annual decline in freshwater reserves is about 3 percent of the annual
renewable freshwater supply across all basins but reaches 10 percent in arid
regions experiencing drying. Global warming, worsening droughts, and
unsustainable land and water use are major contributors to this trend.
Impacts on jobs, the economy, and the planet
Continental drying severely affects agricultural productivity, leading to job
losses, income declines, and environmental damages.
• Jobs. In Sub-Saharan Africa, droughts have rendered 600,000–900,000
people jobless annually. The negative effect of water scarcity on jobs is
most pronounced in rural farming communities and among women,
older individuals, landless farmers, and low-skilled workers.
• Income. Local water shortages can have global economic repercussions
because of interconnected trade networks. For example, a 100 mm
drop in annual rainfall in India could reduce global real income by
US$68 billion.1
• Wildfires and biodiversity. Continental drying increases the frequency
and severity of wildfires, posing a threat to biodiversity. A 1-standarddeviation
(SD) increase in the rate of freshwater depletion raises the
likelihood of wildfires by 27 percent; in biodiversity hot spots, it raises
the likelihood by 50 percent.
Mapping water vulnerability and savings potential
Global water use increased by 25 percent from 2000 to 2019, with about a
third of this increase occurring in regions already drying out. Regions facing
the dual crisis of increasing water demand and decreasing supply are
identified, with a significant share of water consumption in these drying
regions linked to low water use efficiency in the cultivation of waterintensive
crops.
Enhancing water use efficiency in agriculture could save substantial
amounts of water when paired with effective monitoring and regulations to
protect the savings. Globally, aligning the production of key crops with
median levels of global water use efficiency could reduce consumption of
freshwater from rivers, lakes, and aquifers by 137 billion cubic meters—
equivalent to the annual water needs of 118 million people. Adjusting
cropland distribution to better match water availability within national
borders and reallocating water use from less efficient to more efficient
producers and from water-scarce to water-abundant areas across countries
through virtual water trade can further increase water savings in drying
regions.
Policy recommendations
The report recommends a three-pronged approach: managing demand,
augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation to tackle the
continental drying crisis. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening
institutions, reforming tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water
accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing
water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract
private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade
barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving
access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job
and livelihood resilience.
To read the full report, please click on
/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Continental%20Drying.pdf
^
Overview
Introduction
The year 2024 marked another year of record-breaking water-related
extremes across the globe. Widespread droughts and floods not only cause
devastating local impacts but also signal broader shifts in the global water
cycle (GCEW 2024). A changing water cycle directly affects the availability
of freshwater. Although shifts in water extremes are increasingly visible,
the long-term trend for total freshwater availability on land remains
poorly understood. Conventional wisdom assumes that the amount of
freshwater available for human and ecosystem use is fixed and that
periodic deficits get eventually compensated with surplus precipitation.
However, this report’s findings challenge that assumption. They reveal a
crisis not only of water extremes but also of a shifting baseline in global
water availability.
Focus of this report
Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, this report presents the first
global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The
findings expose an alarming trend of continental drying: a persistent longterm
decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are
droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of
freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Combining satellite
data with microeconomic data, this report further explores four questions.
What has caused continental drying?
Previous research and this report’s analysis point to three major causes:
global warming, worsening droughts, and human activities that affect water
and land use. Among these, unsustainable water and land use are pivotal
drivers of freshwater loss in nonglaciated regions. Although the crisis of a changing climate is at its core a water crisis, ineffective water management has further exacerbated it.
What are the impacts of continental drying?
Continental drying raises profound risks: It can reduce agricultural productivity, harm human health, and, in extreme cases, render land uninhabitable and drive large-scale emigration. The report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion jeopardizes jobs and incomes, intensifies the frequency and severity of wildfires, and poses a serious threat to biodiversity. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point at which damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult.
Main Messages
This report addresses the escalating global water crisis characterized by
continental drying—the long-term decline in freshwater availability across
large landmasses—highlighting trends, causes, and impacts on jobs, the
economy, and the planet. It presents a comprehensive strategy and policy
action road map focused on demand management, supply augmentation,
and improved water allocation to address the water crisis.
Trend and causes of continental drying
Global freshwater reserves have significantly declined over the past two
decades, leading to the emergence of mega-drying regions. This loss of
freshwater is estimated at 324 billion cubic meters per year—enough to meet
the annual water needs of 280 million people. Regionally, the median basinlevel
annual decline in freshwater reserves is about 3 percent of the annual
renewable freshwater supply across all basins but reaches 10 percent in arid
regions experiencing drying. Global warming, worsening droughts, and
unsustainable land and water use are major contributors to this trend.
Impacts on jobs, the economy, and the planet
Continental drying severely affects agricultural productivity, leading to job
losses, income declines, and environmental damages.
• Jobs. In Sub-Saharan Africa, droughts have rendered 600,000–900,000
people jobless annually. The negative effect of water scarcity on jobs is
most pronounced in rural farming communities and among women,
older individuals, landless farmers, and low-skilled workers.
• Income. Local water shortages can have global economic repercussions
because of interconnected trade networks. For example, a 100 mm
drop in annual rainfall in India could reduce global real income by
US$68 billion.1
• Wildfires and biodiversity. Continental drying increases the frequency
and severity of wildfires, posing a threat to biodiversity. A 1-standarddeviation
(SD) increase in the rate of freshwater depletion raises the
likelihood of wildfires by 27 percent; in biodiversity hot spots, it raises
the likelihood by 50 percent.
Mapping water vulnerability and savings potential
Global water use increased by 25 percent from 2000 to 2019, with about a
third of this increase occurring in regions already drying out. Regions facing
the dual crisis of increasing water demand and decreasing supply are
identified, with a significant share of water consumption in these drying
regions linked to low water use efficiency in the cultivation of waterintensive
crops.
Enhancing water use efficiency in agriculture could save substantial
amounts of water when paired with effective monitoring and regulations to
protect the savings. Globally, aligning the production of key crops with
median levels of global water use efficiency could reduce consumption of
freshwater from rivers, lakes, and aquifers by 137 billion cubic meters—
equivalent to the annual water needs of 118 million people. Adjusting
cropland distribution to better match water availability within national
borders and reallocating water use from less efficient to more efficient
producers and from water-scarce to water-abundant areas across countries
through virtual water trade can further increase water savings in drying
regions.
Policy recommendations
The report recommends a three-pronged approach: managing demand,
augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation to tackle the
continental drying crisis. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening
institutions, reforming tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water
accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing
water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract
private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade
barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving
access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job
and livelihood resilience.
To read the full report, please click on
/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Continental%20Drying.pdf
^
