| Right now, diplomats, scientists, lobbyists and others are gathered in the resort city of Antalya, Turkey, for the 31st annual U.N. climate summit. COP31 (short for “Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change” in U.N.-speak), comes amid a war that has majorly disrupted fossil fuel supplies, a record-setting year for climate extremes and what may turn out to be the strongest El Niño in living memory.We have a slew of stories this week on both of these topics, including a breakdown of the key things to know about COP31 from reporter Jackie Mogensen and a couple pieces from me looking at the implications of this El Niño. One of the longest-lasting effects could be on global temperatures.How does El Niño affect Earth’s temperature? When warm water sloshes from west to east across the tropical Pacific, it releases massive amounts of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. That heat raises the planet’s temperature, with a bit of a lag between the height of the El Niño and when global temperatures peak.Why does that matter? Usually the temperature rise from El Niño is a temporary fever that abates as the Pacific returns to its normal state. But the heat from El Niño could fuel some of the same feedbacks that human-driven warming does, such as melting polar ice or thawing permafrost—thereby exacerbating warming. This year and next will have average temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, and it’s unclear if and by how much they’ll come back down.Find me on Bluesky @andreatweather.bsky.social!—Andrea Thompson |
