Charting New Waters in the Arctic?
The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world. In fact, climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer. This could open a new route between Asia and Europe over the North Pole.
A seasonally navigable CAO could enable maritime commercial activities farther north than ever before. In a new report, RAND experts explore how global actors might use this new access for economic, political, and military gain.
Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, the authors address factors that could drive or inhibit use of the CAO, what these activities might look like, and when they might be possible. The researchers also examine which countries and groups might use the CAO first or benefit the most.
A key finding is that new activities in the CAO will not happen all at once. For instance, fishing will not occur before the end of a moratorium in 2037. Cargo shipping will not occur in high volumes before there is reliable access for at least two months at a time. And new Arctic mining will develop incrementally.
The most plausible scenario in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, mainly seasonal shipping and tourism. These changes are likely to unfold in a staggered way as ice melt continues to expand windows of opportunity for human activity in the Arctic
The Future of Maritime Presence in the Central Arctic Ocean
Stephanie Pezard, Scott R. Stephenson, Eric Cooper, Katherine Anania, Zachary Barry, Kristen Gunness, Brian Sattler
ResearchPublished Jul 30, 2025
Climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer for a limited window of time, opening a seasonally navigable route that connects Asia to Europe by crossing over the North Pole. This Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) and its surrounding waters in the CAO have seen little activity and would be available for seasonal commercial and surface military activity, particularly from the surrounding exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Canada, Denmark (through Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Norway, Russia, and the United States.
In this report, the authors explore how global actors may leverage new maritime access in the CAO for economic, political, and military gain. Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, they examine current and potential future maritime uses of the ocean and the TSR by Arctic states and other actors. They then present a scenario in four phases of how these activities could plausibly develop in the CAO over time. The authors find that the most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.
Key Findings
- The most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though ice melt will continue to expand windows of opportunity for activity throughout the 21st century and numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.
- Fishing in the CAO is prohibited until at least 2037 and will likely be of limited commercial appeal.
- The CAO will still hold little appeal for extractive activities, such as mineral mining, because closer-to-shore resources continue to offer material at a competitive cost.
- Increased activity in the CAO means that new actors will also be entering Arctic state EEZs and even territorial waters, increasing the risk of security and safety hazards close to shore.
- The actors best positioned to be first movers in the CAO will be those that have already planned and developed the capacity to operate in the region.
- Not every state stands to gain equally from the opening of a commercially viable CAO. Russia would be seriously affected by the creation of a direct competitor to the Northern Sea Route.
- The risk of resource-driven geopolitical conflict in the CAO is limited, although accidental escalation is always possible.
- Sustained activity in the CAO will depend on a robust presence of search and rescue and disaster response provisions. Reliable access to the CAO does not mean safe navigation in the CAO.
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Charting New Waters in the Arctic?
The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world. In fact, climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer. This could open a new route between Asia and Europe over the North Pole.
A seasonally navigable CAO could enable maritime commercial activities farther north than ever before. In a new report, RAND experts explore how global actors might use this new access for economic, political, and military gain.
Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, the authors address factors that could drive or inhibit use of the CAO, what these activities might look like, and when they might be possible. The researchers also examine which countries and groups might use the CAO first or benefit the most.
A key finding is that new activities in the CAO will not happen all at once. For instance, fishing will not occur before the end of a moratorium in 2037. Cargo shipping will not occur in high volumes before there is reliable access for at least two months at a time. And new Arctic mining will develop incrementally.
The most plausible scenario in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, mainly seasonal shipping and tourism. These changes are likely to unfold in a staggered way as ice melt continues to expand windows of opportunity for human activity in the Arctic
The Future of Maritime Presence in the Central Arctic Ocean
Stephanie Pezard, Scott R. Stephenson, Eric Cooper, Katherine Anania, Zachary Barry, Kristen Gunness, Brian Sattler
ResearchPublished Jul 30, 2025
Climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer for a limited window of time, opening a seasonally navigable route that connects Asia to Europe by crossing over the North Pole. This Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) and its surrounding waters in the CAO have seen little activity and would be available for seasonal commercial and surface military activity, particularly from the surrounding exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Canada, Denmark (through Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Norway, Russia, and the United States.
In this report, the authors explore how global actors may leverage new maritime access in the CAO for economic, political, and military gain. Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, they examine current and potential future maritime uses of the ocean and the TSR by Arctic states and other actors. They then present a scenario in four phases of how these activities could plausibly develop in the CAO over time. The authors find that the most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.
Key Findings
- The most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though ice melt will continue to expand windows of opportunity for activity throughout the 21st century and numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.
- Fishing in the CAO is prohibited until at least 2037 and will likely be of limited commercial appeal.
- The CAO will still hold little appeal for extractive activities, such as mineral mining, because closer-to-shore resources continue to offer material at a competitive cost.
- Increased activity in the CAO means that new actors will also be entering Arctic state EEZs and even territorial waters, increasing the risk of security and safety hazards close to shore.
- The actors best positioned to be first movers in the CAO will be those that have already planned and developed the capacity to operate in the region.
- Not every state stands to gain equally from the opening of a commercially viable CAO. Russia would be seriously affected by the creation of a direct competitor to the Northern Sea Route.
- The risk of resource-driven geopolitical conflict in the CAO is limited, although accidental escalation is always possible.
- Sustained activity in the CAO will depend on a robust presence of search and rescue and disaster response provisions. Reliable access to the CAO does not mean safe navigation in the CAO.
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