Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Academy-Türkiye
January 12- 2024
The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) was again on the agenda with the 2024-2028 Action Plan announced recently. In the statements made by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and relevant ministers, important issues regarding the project’s future were emphasized.
In the statements made, it was stated that sustainable and smart agricultural practices will be widespread in the coming period and measures will be taken to ensure that agriculture is the driving force in the region’s development. It was also stated that it is important to increase food production within the scope of strengthening social welfare and fighting inflation and that steps will be taken in this area, especially among public investment priorities. It was stated that the possible effects of the latest political developments in Syria on foreign trade were also evaluated and the policies to be followed in the new period were discussed. These statements reveal that a new road map has been created for GAP. This shows that our thesis, which we have been expressing for a long time, that GAP is increasing in importance for the region, has come true.
GAP’s completion targets:
Targeted completion years of the project; It was stated as 2005 in the GAP Master Plan, 2010 in the GAP Regional Development Plan, and 2012 in the GAP Action Plan, but these targets were not achieved. According to the 2023 Latest Status Report published by GAP-BKİ, 91.2% realization has been achieved in energy projects within the scope of GAP and 63% in GAP Action Plan irrigation projects (1). Many factors such as terrorism in the region, constant tension and emerging conflict in the Middle East, and deteriorations in Turkey’s public financing balance were effective in the constant postponement of the completion date of the Project. In his book published in 2011 (2), the author made the following explanation regarding the project’s completion date.
“It seems very difficult to receive the planned returns from GAP before 2023. This difficulty will arise from the fact that the project is an integrated project, covering 40 public institutions and 270 projects and that it will take a long time to prepare the soil and farmers for irrigation investments, even if financial continuity is achieved. “It would be more appropriate to accept the year 2040 for the final development status on the entire Basin scale.”
Figure 1. GAP Region, Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and riparian countries
GAP, an integrated development project planned during the global economic and international relations period of the Cold War, has become a project bordering a region that is being tried to be reshaped politically today. Latest political developments and increasing climate effects in the region have expanded the regional benefit limits of GAP.
Figure 2. Situations of countries in world food trade (4).
Food Security of the Arabian Peninsula
With the rapid population growth in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, food demand is also increasing and diversifying. In the UN map shown in Figure 2, the Arabian Peninsula is seen as a net food importer. There is a food market worth 30 billion dollars annually in this region. In this food market, distant countries such as the European Union, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Canada stand out (5).
With the completion of GAP, a significant part of the demand in this market can be met from food production in GAP under much more favorable conditions. When relations in the region are handled with a win-win approach rather than a zero-sum approach, geographical proximity, consumption patterns and similarity in consumption habits will facilitate cooperation in this field. However, it is not unlikely that rapid political developments in the region, along with climate change, will feed instability again and cause the securitization of water. However, despite all these negative possibilities, what needs to be done in GAP by Türkiye should be re-planned in the light of past experiences and implemented quickly. GAP is a project that will offer many opportunities for stability and cooperation in the Arabian Peninsula and will help to develope peace in the region
Some Factors Delaying the Completion of the GAP
The reasons that delayed the completion of GAP in 2005 as planned, in other words, the factors delayed the further progress in the project, can be listed as follows (7).
- Institutional factors such as centralized government, cumbersome bureaucracy, lack of institutional capacity and lack of coordination between government institutions,
- GAP-BKİ’s administrative structure and administrative factors such as indefinite tenure, lack of institutional capacity and authority arising from this structure,
- Economic factors such as insufficient financial resources, insufficient public and private sector investments,
- Security factors such as preventing the private sector from investing in the region due to PKK terrorism,
- Political factors such as lack of political will and political stability
General Evaluation
The continuous expansion and extension of GAP made it difficult to see the positive effects of the project concretely and positively, especially on a regional scale. GAP has been a project that consists of many project bundles but moves away from the result of an all-out regional development project with concrete targets. This situation caused the excitement in GAP to decrease and partially dampened the expectations. However, GAP is also a project that does not stop and is not blocked, even though it has been going on for nearly half a century. Suddenly accelerating political developments in the region, has provided us with the opportunity to address the GAP with new targets.
In this context, the fact that public investment budget allocations part of the GAP in the last 3 years have gradually increased and reached three times the average allocation value for many years will play an important role in the revival of the project. Increasing economic interest in GAP and the targets set and statements made by the Fourth Action Plan (2024-2028) will bring acceleration in GAP.
International security-oriented negative developments that have been experienced in the world since the beginning of the 21st century and especially increasing in climate change effects , have highlighted the food security policies of countries. With this understanding, it was seen that many developed countries purchased or rented agricultural land in many African countries.
It seems that these efforts to ensure food security are particularly prominent in countries with limited water and land resources, such as the countries of the Arabian peninsula.
This situation also increases the international strategic importance of a project such as GAP, which is located in Mesopotamia and the Fertile Crescent region, which contributes greatly to the development of history with its water and land resources.
When the international developments taking place on a global scale in the world, their regional consequences and the risks posed by climate change are analyzed with an interdisciplinary understanding, the increase in the strategic importance of GAP can be easily seen. By considering and evaluating these developments very well, Türkiye’s new plans for the GAP will put Türkiye at ease soon. However, it should not be ignored that the increasing strategic importance of the GAP will also be of interest to the global powers that are very active in the region.
References
1-2023 Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Son Durum Raporu GAP BKİB
2-Yıldız D. Özbay Ö (2011) Şu Fırat’ın Suyu Truva Yayınları .İstanbul
3-GAP Broşürü 2020 “ GAP Büyük Türkiye “ TC Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Bölge Kalkınma İdaresi Başkanlığı .Şanlıurfa www.gap.gov.tr
4-Countries Are Starting to Hoard Food, Threatening Global Trade (March 30 2020) https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/31071-countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade erişim: 17 07 2020.
5-Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: “GAP Ortadoğu’yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.
6-Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: “GAP Ortadoğu’yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.
7-Bilgen A. (2018) 1977’den 2017’ye Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP): GAP’ın 40 Yılı Üzerine Nitel ve Çok Boyutlu Bir Değerlendirme Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt 73, No. 3, 2018, s. 811 -840
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Dursun Yıldız
Director
Hydropolitics Academy-Türkiye
January 12- 2024
The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) was again on the agenda with the 2024-2028 Action Plan announced recently. In the statements made by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and relevant ministers, important issues regarding the project’s future were emphasized.
In the statements made, it was stated that sustainable and smart agricultural practices will be widespread in the coming period and measures will be taken to ensure that agriculture is the driving force in the region’s development. It was also stated that it is important to increase food production within the scope of strengthening social welfare and fighting inflation and that steps will be taken in this area, especially among public investment priorities. It was stated that the possible effects of the latest political developments in Syria on foreign trade were also evaluated and the policies to be followed in the new period were discussed. These statements reveal that a new road map has been created for GAP. This shows that our thesis, which we have been expressing for a long time, that GAP is increasing in importance for the region, has come true.
GAP’s completion targets:
Targeted completion years of the project; It was stated as 2005 in the GAP Master Plan, 2010 in the GAP Regional Development Plan, and 2012 in the GAP Action Plan, but these targets were not achieved. According to the 2023 Latest Status Report published by GAP-BKİ, 91.2% realization has been achieved in energy projects within the scope of GAP and 63% in GAP Action Plan irrigation projects (1). Many factors such as terrorism in the region, constant tension and emerging conflict in the Middle East, and deteriorations in Turkey’s public financing balance were effective in the constant postponement of the completion date of the Project. In his book published in 2011 (2), the author made the following explanation regarding the project’s completion date.
“It seems very difficult to receive the planned returns from GAP before 2023. This difficulty will arise from the fact that the project is an integrated project, covering 40 public institutions and 270 projects and that it will take a long time to prepare the soil and farmers for irrigation investments, even if financial continuity is achieved. “It would be more appropriate to accept the year 2040 for the final development status on the entire Basin scale.”
Figure 1. GAP Region, Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and riparian countries
GAP, an integrated development project planned during the global economic and international relations period of the Cold War, has become a project bordering a region that is being tried to be reshaped politically today. Latest political developments and increasing climate effects in the region have expanded the regional benefit limits of GAP.
Figure 2. Situations of countries in world food trade (4).
Food Security of the Arabian Peninsula
With the rapid population growth in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, food demand is also increasing and diversifying. In the UN map shown in Figure 2, the Arabian Peninsula is seen as a net food importer. There is a food market worth 30 billion dollars annually in this region. In this food market, distant countries such as the European Union, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Canada stand out (5).
With the completion of GAP, a significant part of the demand in this market can be met from food production in GAP under much more favorable conditions. When relations in the region are handled with a win-win approach rather than a zero-sum approach, geographical proximity, consumption patterns and similarity in consumption habits will facilitate cooperation in this field. However, it is not unlikely that rapid political developments in the region, along with climate change, will feed instability again and cause the securitization of water. However, despite all these negative possibilities, what needs to be done in GAP by Türkiye should be re-planned in the light of past experiences and implemented quickly. GAP is a project that will offer many opportunities for stability and cooperation in the Arabian Peninsula and will help to develope peace in the region
Some Factors Delaying the Completion of the GAP
The reasons that delayed the completion of GAP in 2005 as planned, in other words, the factors delayed the further progress in the project, can be listed as follows (7).
- Institutional factors such as centralized government, cumbersome bureaucracy, lack of institutional capacity and lack of coordination between government institutions,
- GAP-BKİ’s administrative structure and administrative factors such as indefinite tenure, lack of institutional capacity and authority arising from this structure,
- Economic factors such as insufficient financial resources, insufficient public and private sector investments,
- Security factors such as preventing the private sector from investing in the region due to PKK terrorism,
- Political factors such as lack of political will and political stability
General Evaluation
The continuous expansion and extension of GAP made it difficult to see the positive effects of the project concretely and positively, especially on a regional scale. GAP has been a project that consists of many project bundles but moves away from the result of an all-out regional development project with concrete targets. This situation caused the excitement in GAP to decrease and partially dampened the expectations. However, GAP is also a project that does not stop and is not blocked, even though it has been going on for nearly half a century. Suddenly accelerating political developments in the region, has provided us with the opportunity to address the GAP with new targets.
In this context, the fact that public investment budget allocations part of the GAP in the last 3 years have gradually increased and reached three times the average allocation value for many years will play an important role in the revival of the project. Increasing economic interest in GAP and the targets set and statements made by the Fourth Action Plan (2024-2028) will bring acceleration in GAP.
International security-oriented negative developments that have been experienced in the world since the beginning of the 21st century and especially increasing in climate change effects , have highlighted the food security policies of countries. With this understanding, it was seen that many developed countries purchased or rented agricultural land in many African countries.
It seems that these efforts to ensure food security are particularly prominent in countries with limited water and land resources, such as the countries of the Arabian peninsula.
This situation also increases the international strategic importance of a project such as GAP, which is located in Mesopotamia and the Fertile Crescent region, which contributes greatly to the development of history with its water and land resources.
When the international developments taking place on a global scale in the world, their regional consequences and the risks posed by climate change are analyzed with an interdisciplinary understanding, the increase in the strategic importance of GAP can be easily seen. By considering and evaluating these developments very well, Türkiye’s new plans for the GAP will put Türkiye at ease soon. However, it should not be ignored that the increasing strategic importance of the GAP will also be of interest to the global powers that are very active in the region.
References
1-2023 Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Son Durum Raporu GAP BKİB
2-Yıldız D. Özbay Ö (2011) Şu Fırat’ın Suyu Truva Yayınları .İstanbul
3-GAP Broşürü 2020 “ GAP Büyük Türkiye “ TC Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Bölge Kalkınma İdaresi Başkanlığı .Şanlıurfa www.gap.gov.tr
4-Countries Are Starting to Hoard Food, Threatening Global Trade (March 30 2020) https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/31071-countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade erişim: 17 07 2020.
5-Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: “GAP Ortadoğu’yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.
6-Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: “GAP Ortadoğu’yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.
7-Bilgen A. (2018) 1977’den 2017’ye Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP): GAP’ın 40 Yılı Üzerine Nitel ve Çok Boyutlu Bir Değerlendirme Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt 73, No. 3, 2018, s. 811 -840
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