STORY HIGHLIGHTS
To make the “lowest possible” 1.5°C overshoot scenario a reality, GHG emissions would need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.
This stands in stark contrast to pledges contained in countries’ NDCs, whose full implementation would reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
The report highlights the need to make successful climate policies economy-wide and replicate and sustain them globally while ensuring coherence with development priorities and local conditions.
“The chance to hold global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot is gone. The task is now to minimize overshoot and return to 1.5°C.” This is according to the 2026 edition of the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. The report calls for replicating, extending, and sustaining effective climate policies to ensure a “lowest possible” 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming is between 1.7 and 1.8°C.
Subtitled, ‘The Point of Return,’ the Emissions Gap Report 2026 estimates that to make this scenario a reality, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels. This stands in stark contrast to pledges contained in countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs), whose full implementation would reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
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The report argues that without urgent action, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway will remain out of reach, with every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels increasing peak warming by around 0.1°C. It finds that returning to or below 1.5°C will also require large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removals from the atmosphere, noting that the feasibility of this is uncertain due to socioeconomic and technological challenges.
The report calls attention to the goals set by the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement on climate change, including tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reducing non-CO2 emissions, and halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation. It emphasizes that achieving these goals could help get on the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway but warns about insufficient progress. The report recommends that the second GST reaffirm priority mitigation action areas, extend quantified goals to 2035 and 2040, and introduce clearer and, where possible, quantified targets for the existing action areas.
The report also sets out sectoral benchmarks aligned with the lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario and calls for successful climate policies that could be replicated and scaled. Citing more than 220 policy evaluations, which provide causal evidence that climate policies reduce emissions across sectors and country contexts, the report cautions that successes appear to be concentrated in specific sectors, countries, and periods. It highlights the need to make such policies economy-wide and replicate and sustain them globally while ensuring coherence with development priorities and local conditions.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026 was launched on 21 October in London, UK, ahead of the 2026 UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Türkiye. In a video message to the launch, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged all countries, especially the big emitters, to “do more,” inviting the Group of 20 (G20) to lead in this endeavor. [Publication: Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return] [Executive Summary] [Key Messages] [Publication Landing Page] [UNEP Press Release] [UN News Story] [SDG Knowledge Hub Stories on 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010 Editions]
