EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is considered a climate hotspot due to its
natural water scarcity, low levels of socio-ecological resilience, social tensions and political
conflicts, and ongoing immigration crisis. Over the course of the century, Jordan, Palestine,
and Israel are projected to experience an average temperature rise over the Mediterranean
of ~1.4C to ~4C; a general decrease in precipitation of 25 percent regionally and up to 40
percent locally; a shift in rain seasons from winter and spring to autumn; a higher frequency
and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, flash floods, and forest fires; as
well as a growing rate of desertification. Despite the effects of climate change being already
observable in the region, the three countries have yet to fully recognize the connection
between the negative impact of climate change on their neighbors’ national security, and
the implications for their own national security. Based on this lack of understanding, Jordan,
Israel, and Palestine have done little to develop a regional, integrated roadmap for climaterelated
national security.
This report concludes that too little attention is being paid to the implications of climaterelated
change for national and regional security. The term threat or risk multiplier is often
used to describe the catalytic effect of climate-related change on states and societies. In this
sense, it is not the climatic changes themselves that are said to cause insecurity. Rather, it
is the adaptive capacity of a state that ultimately determines the extent to which climaterelated
change impacts the socio-economic development and political stability of a country
and, therefore, of a region. The adaptive capacity of a state is weakened if the country exhibits
unstable political institutions with low accountability, political repression and/or corruption,
social tensions, a history of intra- or inter-state conflicts, as well as unsustainable livelihoods
and damaged infrastructure, among others.
In the regional context of Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, climate-related changes are forecasted
to impact a wide range of sectors where the adaptive capacity of the state might already be
weak, particularly in Jordan and Palestine. These include:
c reduced availability of natural water leading to greater difficulty to meet domestic
water needs and resulting in rationing of water. The intermittent water supply fuels
public animosity that is already present on non-water related issues.
c reduced agricultural production as a result of less available water, higher temperatures,
and extreme weather events. Lower exporting capacity and higher dependence on
imported foods are likely going to cause higher food prices, lower and less stable
incomes, and possible food shortages for some staple food products.
c economic recession in the agricultural sector as a result of lower agricultural yield
could lead to the erosion of livelihoods, internal displacement of people, and greater
food insecurity c increased pressure on physical infrastructure due to extreme weather events that leads
to the collapse of infrastructure in the field of transport, electricity, and other essential
services, as well as loss of life due to resulting accidents.
c outbreak of new climate-related diseases, placing additional stress on already
inadequate health services contributing to the overall deterioration of public health.
These impacts will have serious implications for the social and political stability of the region.
Systemic failure to respond to humanitarian and environmental crises creates dissatisfaction
with the governing authorities. The built-up pressure from within may inadvertently ignite
public turmoil that will challenge the resilience of the system. In the context of the highly
inflammable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this could easily transmute into uprisings and mass
riots that transcend national borders and threaten national security in Israel, Palestine, and
Jordan.
At the same time, Jordan’s acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees since the
onset of the civil war has put the country before new challenges. The stark influx of refugees
has already strained Jordan’s finances, its natural resources, as well as the patience of its people.
Regional Cooperation
The bilateral agreements in place between Israel and Jordan and interim agreements
between Israel and Palestine were never designed to accommodate climate-change related
events such as steadily declining water availability, prolonged droughts, and other extreme
weather events. The repercussions of climate change will be felt on multiple dimensions –
from global outcomes to national, regional, and local reverberations. Though the writing is
on the wall, especially following the Syrian civil war, the national security-related implications
of climate change on the broader region’s stability has not led to a significant change in
policy or willingness to cooperate across borders.
Regional cooperation is needed to combat the threats of climate change that will in turn be
a step in a cycle of positive interactions that builds trust. The Water Energy Nexus project
developed by EcoPeace Middle East and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation offers one such
opportunity through which all three countries engage in a regional approach to counter the
effects of climate change and its potential negative security implications, while advancing
water and energy security region wide.
Policy Recommendations
Based on a set of national roundtables organized by EcoPeace Middle East and held in each
country during 2018, and a regional roundtable held at the Dead Sea in Jordan in November
2018, EcoPeace Middle East proposes the following policy recommendations:
Climate Change, Water Security, and National Security for Jordan, Palestine, and Israel | 7
1. Promote a paradigm shift to integrate climate change considerations onto the national
security agenda of each country. This entails the assessment, analysis, and development
of strategies to respond to the national security threats of climate change at the highest
levels of the respective, often competing, national security directorates and authorities
in each country.
2. Resolve final status natural water allocations between Israel and Palestine, so that
cooperation can advance based on greater political certainty in the water sector for
Palestine.
3. Create a roadmap for a regional approach to address climate change adaptation and
mitigation issues.
4. Devise strategies to effectively upgrade and improve water infrastructure and tariffs
(Jordan and Palestine).
5. Encourage the international community to invest in national projects in Jordan and
Palestine that advance regional approaches to climate change issues.
INTRODUCTION
There is widespread consensus within the scientific and political community that global
climate change is underway, human-induced, and has already had observable effects on
our environment. According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), climate
change “is the major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the single greatest
challenge facing environmental regulators. It is a growing crisis, and has economic, water,
health and safety, food production, security, and other dimensions.”1 The Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region has been identified as a climate hotspot. Part of this is due to the
MENA’s natural water scarcity, with many of the MENA countries having one of the lowest per
capita water availability in the world, coupled with the region’s low levels of socio-ecological
resilience, social tensions and political conflicts, and ongoing immigration crisis.
Israel, Palestine, and Jordan are three neighboring countries at the heart of the MENA region.
All of them are grappling with water scarcity in different ways and to different degrees. While
Israel has become a trailblazer in the field of water technology, the failure to reach a fair water
allocation and management agreement between Israelis and Palestinians is putting the
Palestinian water sector under huge stress and continues to breed animosity that will only
accelerate under climate change. Meanwhile, the influx of nearly one and half million Syrian
refugees is further straining Jordan’s water supplies – already one of the lowest in the world.
Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the water stress in these three countries.
Scientific climate models for the MENA region provide information on projected climate
variations in the region. They do not, however, offer insight into the social and political
implications resulting from the impact of climate change. By building on earlier research,
the objective of this paper is to analyze the consequences of climate change not from a
scientific, but from a socio-political perspective. In doing so, this paper poses the following
questions: What is the relationship between climate change and social conflict? Can climate
change act as a threat multiplier, exacerbating already existing social tensions in the region?
What are the implications of declining water levels, refugee movements, and resource
conflicts for the regional and national security interests of Jordan, Palestine and Israel?
Part I of this paper provides an overview of the effects of climate change on Israel, Palestine,
and Jordan. Part II analyzes the geopolitical implications of climate change for the security
of each of the three countries and the region as a whole. Part III outlines and assesses the
effectiveness of various policy measures undertaken by each country to mitigate or adapt
to climate change, and makes arguments for the need for regional cooperation on climate
change. Part IV offers policy recommendations as to what actions should be pursued
individually by each country and jointly by the region to combat climate change and its
implications for regional and national security.
1 “Climate Change – Introduction,” United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), n.d., https://na.unep.net/geas/
climate-change.php.
to read full report please click on
^
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is considered a climate hotspot due to its
natural water scarcity, low levels of socio-ecological resilience, social tensions and political
conflicts, and ongoing immigration crisis. Over the course of the century, Jordan, Palestine,
and Israel are projected to experience an average temperature rise over the Mediterranean
of ~1.4C to ~4C; a general decrease in precipitation of 25 percent regionally and up to 40
percent locally; a shift in rain seasons from winter and spring to autumn; a higher frequency
and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, flash floods, and forest fires; as
well as a growing rate of desertification. Despite the effects of climate change being already
observable in the region, the three countries have yet to fully recognize the connection
between the negative impact of climate change on their neighbors’ national security, and
the implications for their own national security. Based on this lack of understanding, Jordan,
Israel, and Palestine have done little to develop a regional, integrated roadmap for climaterelated
national security.
This report concludes that too little attention is being paid to the implications of climaterelated
change for national and regional security. The term threat or risk multiplier is often
used to describe the catalytic effect of climate-related change on states and societies. In this
sense, it is not the climatic changes themselves that are said to cause insecurity. Rather, it
is the adaptive capacity of a state that ultimately determines the extent to which climaterelated
change impacts the socio-economic development and political stability of a country
and, therefore, of a region. The adaptive capacity of a state is weakened if the country exhibits
unstable political institutions with low accountability, political repression and/or corruption,
social tensions, a history of intra- or inter-state conflicts, as well as unsustainable livelihoods
and damaged infrastructure, among others.
In the regional context of Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, climate-related changes are forecasted
to impact a wide range of sectors where the adaptive capacity of the state might already be
weak, particularly in Jordan and Palestine. These include:
c reduced availability of natural water leading to greater difficulty to meet domestic
water needs and resulting in rationing of water. The intermittent water supply fuels
public animosity that is already present on non-water related issues.
c reduced agricultural production as a result of less available water, higher temperatures,
and extreme weather events. Lower exporting capacity and higher dependence on
imported foods are likely going to cause higher food prices, lower and less stable
incomes, and possible food shortages for some staple food products.
c economic recession in the agricultural sector as a result of lower agricultural yield
could lead to the erosion of livelihoods, internal displacement of people, and greater
food insecurity c increased pressure on physical infrastructure due to extreme weather events that leads
to the collapse of infrastructure in the field of transport, electricity, and other essential
services, as well as loss of life due to resulting accidents.
c outbreak of new climate-related diseases, placing additional stress on already
inadequate health services contributing to the overall deterioration of public health.
These impacts will have serious implications for the social and political stability of the region.
Systemic failure to respond to humanitarian and environmental crises creates dissatisfaction
with the governing authorities. The built-up pressure from within may inadvertently ignite
public turmoil that will challenge the resilience of the system. In the context of the highly
inflammable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this could easily transmute into uprisings and mass
riots that transcend national borders and threaten national security in Israel, Palestine, and
Jordan.
At the same time, Jordan’s acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees since the
onset of the civil war has put the country before new challenges. The stark influx of refugees
has already strained Jordan’s finances, its natural resources, as well as the patience of its people.
Regional Cooperation
The bilateral agreements in place between Israel and Jordan and interim agreements
between Israel and Palestine were never designed to accommodate climate-change related
events such as steadily declining water availability, prolonged droughts, and other extreme
weather events. The repercussions of climate change will be felt on multiple dimensions –
from global outcomes to national, regional, and local reverberations. Though the writing is
on the wall, especially following the Syrian civil war, the national security-related implications
of climate change on the broader region’s stability has not led to a significant change in
policy or willingness to cooperate across borders.
Regional cooperation is needed to combat the threats of climate change that will in turn be
a step in a cycle of positive interactions that builds trust. The Water Energy Nexus project
developed by EcoPeace Middle East and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation offers one such
opportunity through which all three countries engage in a regional approach to counter the
effects of climate change and its potential negative security implications, while advancing
water and energy security region wide.
Policy Recommendations
Based on a set of national roundtables organized by EcoPeace Middle East and held in each
country during 2018, and a regional roundtable held at the Dead Sea in Jordan in November
2018, EcoPeace Middle East proposes the following policy recommendations:
Climate Change, Water Security, and National Security for Jordan, Palestine, and Israel | 7
1. Promote a paradigm shift to integrate climate change considerations onto the national
security agenda of each country. This entails the assessment, analysis, and development
of strategies to respond to the national security threats of climate change at the highest
levels of the respective, often competing, national security directorates and authorities
in each country.
2. Resolve final status natural water allocations between Israel and Palestine, so that
cooperation can advance based on greater political certainty in the water sector for
Palestine.
3. Create a roadmap for a regional approach to address climate change adaptation and
mitigation issues.
4. Devise strategies to effectively upgrade and improve water infrastructure and tariffs
(Jordan and Palestine).
5. Encourage the international community to invest in national projects in Jordan and
Palestine that advance regional approaches to climate change issues.
INTRODUCTION
There is widespread consensus within the scientific and political community that global
climate change is underway, human-induced, and has already had observable effects on
our environment. According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), climate
change “is the major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the single greatest
challenge facing environmental regulators. It is a growing crisis, and has economic, water,
health and safety, food production, security, and other dimensions.”1 The Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region has been identified as a climate hotspot. Part of this is due to the
MENA’s natural water scarcity, with many of the MENA countries having one of the lowest per
capita water availability in the world, coupled with the region’s low levels of socio-ecological
resilience, social tensions and political conflicts, and ongoing immigration crisis.
Israel, Palestine, and Jordan are three neighboring countries at the heart of the MENA region.
All of them are grappling with water scarcity in different ways and to different degrees. While
Israel has become a trailblazer in the field of water technology, the failure to reach a fair water
allocation and management agreement between Israelis and Palestinians is putting the
Palestinian water sector under huge stress and continues to breed animosity that will only
accelerate under climate change. Meanwhile, the influx of nearly one and half million Syrian
refugees is further straining Jordan’s water supplies – already one of the lowest in the world.
Climate change is expected to further exacerbate the water stress in these three countries.
Scientific climate models for the MENA region provide information on projected climate
variations in the region. They do not, however, offer insight into the social and political
implications resulting from the impact of climate change. By building on earlier research,
the objective of this paper is to analyze the consequences of climate change not from a
scientific, but from a socio-political perspective. In doing so, this paper poses the following
questions: What is the relationship between climate change and social conflict? Can climate
change act as a threat multiplier, exacerbating already existing social tensions in the region?
What are the implications of declining water levels, refugee movements, and resource
conflicts for the regional and national security interests of Jordan, Palestine and Israel?
Part I of this paper provides an overview of the effects of climate change on Israel, Palestine,
and Jordan. Part II analyzes the geopolitical implications of climate change for the security
of each of the three countries and the region as a whole. Part III outlines and assesses the
effectiveness of various policy measures undertaken by each country to mitigate or adapt
to climate change, and makes arguments for the need for regional cooperation on climate
change. Part IV offers policy recommendations as to what actions should be pursued
individually by each country and jointly by the region to combat climate change and its
implications for regional and national security.
1 “Climate Change – Introduction,” United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), n.d., https://na.unep.net/geas/
climate-change.php.
to read full report please click on
^
